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Stealing Skill Concerns

#1
CURRENT STEALING MECHANICS:
  • Success chance to steal an item is (50% * (Stealing Skill / 100))
  • If the thief is wearing a disguise kit, success chance is increased by 25%
  • Each player, including the target, has a 20% chance to spot a nearby stealing attempt (10% if they do not have a line-of-sight to the thief)
  • Each human NPC, including the target, has a 10% chance to spot a nearby stealing attempt (5% if they do not have a line-of-sight to the thief)
I am assuming that failing a steal attempt also results in being spotted. (which results in being whacked if in town)

This means that as a Grandmaster thief, even with a disguise kit on; will have 45% (25% failed steal + 20% player spot) chance of being guard whacked in town. This chance to be guard whacked is even more if there are other people or NPC's around. This just doesnt seem correct to me.

I understand we want to discourage annoying bank thieves, but i think the 5 min resurrection penalty solves that.

A disguise kit should effect your chance to be spotted, not your ability to successfully steal an item.

My biggest concern is that as a GM thief i'm gonna fail 25% of the time (if i'm in town thats a guard whack) on top of the chances of being spotted which also results in guard whack.

Also, The weight of an item does not matter here. As a thief i remember having to decide what i wanted to steal because stealing a heavier item meant that i had a higher chance to be spotted, and less chance to succeed. This encouraged me to actually snoop peoples backpack and target specific items.

I don't like to complain without a solution... So here's what i got:
The player that a thief targets should have less of a chance to spot than NPC's and other players.
A disguise kit should effect your chance to be spotted, not your ability to successfully steal an item.
As a Grandmaster thief i should be able to successfully steal an item 90% of the time regardless of being spotted or not.

I'm sure no one is going to agree with this unless you enjoy playing a thief, but i figured i would try.
 
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Kilgu

Apprentice
#2
I don't think the percentages are cumulative like that.
Lets say there are 5 people on the screen, each with a 20% chance of spotting you. That doesn't make it 100% chance to spot, its still 20% each x 5 "chances"
Yes its more chances that someone will spot you but even with 100 on screen you still have a chance to not be spotted.
Too tired right now to do the actual math but it's never 100%. Like flipping a coin 10 times each flip has a 50% chance of heads or tails regardless of previous flips. Its possible to get 10 heads or 10 tails in a row.
 
#3
I don't think the percentages are cumulative like that.
Lets say there are 5 people on the screen, each with a 20% chance of spotting you. That doesn't make it 100% chance to spot, its still 20% each x 5 "chances"
Yes its more chances that someone will spot you but even with 100 on screen you still have a chance to not be spotted.
Too tired right now to do the actual math but it's never 100%. Like flipping a coin 10 times each flip has a 50% chance of heads or tails regardless of previous flips. Its possible to get 10 heads or 10 tails in a row.
Yeah i understand that. But with a 25% chance to fail (and be spotted) and then the player i am targeting is a 20% to be spotted.... that IS cumulative.
 

Kilgu

Apprentice
#4
No they should still be seperate. You can succeed and still be caught as these are two seperate systems.
Stealing attempt - 25% to fail
If failed - 20% chance to be spotted
If success - 20% chance to be spotted

So if we break this down into say 5 attempts it would play out like this (statistically at least)
Attempt 1 - Success (75% chance), target doesn't notice (80%)
Attempt 2 - Success (75% chance), target doesn't notice (80%)
Attempt 3 - Success (75% chance), target notices (20%)
Attempt 4 - Fail (25% chance), target doesn't notice (80%)
Attempt 5 - Success (75% chance), target doesn't notice (80%)

These systems are concurrent not cumulative. So on a long enough timeline the probability of being caught approaches 100% but never gets to 100%.
 
#5
No they should still be seperate. You can succeed and still be caught as these are two seperate systems.
Stealing attempt - 25% to fail
If failed - 20% chance to be spotted
If success - 20% chance to be spotted

So if we break this down into say 5 attempts it would play out like this (statistically at least)
Attempt 1 - Success (75% chance), target doesn't notice (80%)
Attempt 2 - Success (75% chance), target doesn't notice (80%)
Attempt 3 - Success (75% chance), target notices (20%)
Attempt 4 - Fail (25% chance), target doesn't notice (80%)
Attempt 5 - Success (75% chance), target doesn't notice (80%)

These systems are concurrent not cumulative. So on a long enough timeline the probability of being caught approaches 100% but never gets to 100%.
And as a grandmaster thief i should be able to succeed more than 75% of the time
I think a failure should be a 100% spot.
 
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Kilgu

Apprentice
#6
Agreed that at GM stealing you should probably never have a chance to be guard whacked when you successfully steal (or at least a very small chance like 2.5%).
But at the same time I don't want you to loot me dry at the bank :p

Probability is one of those really alien ideas that our brains are just not designed to naturally process correctly. Its why casinos and such are so effective.
This TED video is a great explanation of how we don't understand probability in daily life.

 
#7
Agreed that at GM stealing you should probably never have a chance to be guard whacked when you successfully steal (or at least a very small chance like 2.5%).
But at the same time I don't want you to loot me dry at the bank :p

Probability is one of those really alien ideas that our brains are just not designed to naturally process correctly. Its why casinos and such are so effective.
This TED video is a great explanation of how we don't understand probability in daily life.

Interesting.
I understand your concern for being dry looted. Maybe don't go AFK at a bank with valuables in your bag, or make sure you are near a lot of NPC's / players as this will increase the chance of the thief getting whacked (which i agree with).

My concern is spending 1-2-3 hundred skillpoints on thieving skills for the cointoss of being successful.

If this stays the same i certainly won't be stealing at a bank (which i guess is the goal) because when i fail half the time i wont be able to steal for another 2 hours because i wont have the 25% steal bonus from a disguise kit. can only use disguise kits every 2 hrs
 
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#9
CURRENT STEALING MECHANICS:
  • Success chance to steal an item is (50% * (Stealing Skill / 100))
  • If the thief is wearing a disguise kit, success chance is increased by 25%
  • Each player, including the target, has a 20% chance to spot a nearby stealing attempt (10% if they do not have a line-of-sight to the thief)
  • Each human NPC, including the target, has a 10% chance to spot a nearby stealing attempt (5% if they do not have a line-of-sight to the thief)
I am assuming that failing a steal attempt also results in being spotted. (which results in being whacked if in town)

This means that as a Grandmaster thief, even with a disguise kit on; will have 45% (25% failed steal + 20% player spot) chance of being guard whacked in town. This chance to be guard whacked is even more if there are other people or NPC's around. This just doesnt seem correct to me.

I understand we want to discourage annoying bank thieves, but i think the 5 min resurrection penalty solves that.

A disguise kit should effect your chance to be spotted, not your ability to successfully steal an item.

My biggest concern is that as a GM thief i'm gonna fail 25% of the time (if i'm in town thats a guard whack) on top of the chances of being spotted which also results in guard whack.

Also, The weight of an item does not matter here. As a thief i remember having to decide what i wanted to steal because stealing a heavier item meant that i had a higher chance to be spotted, and less chance to succeed. This encouraged me to actually snoop peoples backpack and target specific items.

I don't like to complain without a solution... So here's what i got:
The player that a thief targets should have less of a chance to spot than NPC's and other players.
A disguise kit should effect your chance to be spotted, not your ability to successfully steal an item.
As a Grandmaster thief i should be able to successfully steal an item 90% of the time regardless of being spotted or not.

I'm sure no one is going to agree with this unless you enjoy playing a thief, but i figured i would try.
Okay, so, i just tested a couple things out.
I stole from a player in guard zone with no other npc or player on screen. Guards were not an issue after 7-8 tries. Sometimes i succeeded, sometimes not.

I tried again with only ONE NPC on screen. The first try i failed with no guards. The 2nd time i succeeded and guards could be called on me, which they were. Now my disguise is gone and i cant use another for 2 hrs. So i have a 50% to successfully steal for 2 hrs. I think this might be a little harsh? However i do like that its not instant guard whack. They could just be called on me.

I guess all in all i'd say i can DEAL with it.

However i think there could be some slight adjustments.

A failure in town should cause the thief to be spotted every time, but the thieves success rate should be higher. On a successful steal the spot chance should rely solely on the players and NPC's that are around the thieves target, and whether the thief is disguised or not.
 
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Kilgu

Apprentice
#12
By the way, have you tested how the stealing skill gain works here? Is it the usual steal items weighing (skill/10) stones for gains from a packy/ground?
with so many character slots I feel like i'm gonna eventually try every template out.
 
#13
By the way, have you tested how the stealing skill gain works here? Is it the usual steal items weighing (skill/10) stones for gains from a packy/ground?
with so many character slots I feel like i'm gonna eventually try every template out.
I actually haven't tested that but I'm going to assume that's not how it's done because item weight difficulty doesn't exist here.
 
#14
Thieves keep us honest. In these cold dark days nothing serves to remind you of your coming doom than some unscrupulous sticky fisted fellow coming up behind you and reaching inside to take your most precious belongings. It is far too easy for the modern comforts of life to lull us foolishly into happiness. Life is struggle. Strife keeps our dicks hard and our front doors locked. Being pocket penetrated by some thief prepares you for the most encumbering penetration of all, death.
 
#16
I think that:
- Weight should impact the chances to steal an item.
- Disguise mask should decrease the chances to be spotted.
- GM Thief chances to steal something should be 100 - the weight BUT still can be spotted
Agreed. if not 100, very close to 100 like 90 or 95
 
#17
Just spitballing some ideas here I'm not knocking the current system.

Changes I would make... but I'm crazy biased and think being a thief could play a better role in PVP and be more rouge like.

How about different percentages of success stealing depending on whether a 1H or 2H weapon is equipped and if you were in/out of war more. I would bring the 2H into the picture because when you are not in war mode you have 1 free hand on your avatar.

Different success rates if you were in city limits (guard zone) or out in the wild/dungeons It would promote thieves to be out in the field more...not bank sitting.

Chances of stealing from the same person diminish if done repeatedly.

This would fit well with how stealth is currently set up to make a nice pvp/pvm rouge template.
 
#18
Just spitballing some ideas here I'm not knocking the current system.

Changes I would make... but I'm crazy biased and think being a thief could play a better role in PVP and be more rouge like.

How about different percentages of success stealing depending on whether a 1H or 2H weapon is equipped and if you were in/out of war more. I would bring the 2H into the picture because when you are not in war mode you have 1 free hand on your avatar.

Different success rates if you were in city limits (guard zone) or out in the wild/dungeons It would promote thieves to be out in the field more...not bank sitting.

Chances of stealing from the same person diminish if done repeatedly.

This would fit well with how stealth is currently set up to make a nice pvp/pvm rouge template.
You can kinda already play a stealthy rogue template especially with shadow aspect armor.

I think this rogue template you are talking about is a different than a thief. Thieving shouldn't revolve around weapons at all IMO.
 
#19
Is anyone concerned with the 50% of the max stones for stacked items? It feels very weak to me. A random number between 75% and 100% would seem like a better option. 50% just seems really bad considering you can fail 25% of the time. So to steal a stack of say 150 bandages you have to succeed in stealing 3 times with a 75% chance.
 

Kilgu

Apprentice
#20
That prevents you from stealing once and rendering a victim warrior unable to heal in a fight when he foolishly tries to reclaim his pilfered rags through force.